21KB
The Hype Handbook — Chapter-08: Make It Scientific
- Source: /library/The Hype Handbook/source-file.pdf
- PDF pages: 109–120
- Pages without text: none
M HYPE STRATEGY #8 MAKE IT SCIENTIFIC Consultants, if they are wise, limit their claims of expertise to just those subjects in which no one else can claim to know what they are doing. —MATTHEW STEWART artin Seligman, professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania, launched his career by administering painful electric shocks to dogs to determine what causes mammals to succumb to despair. He coined the term “learned helplessness,” wrote a book about it, and got hired by the CIA to help put together its “enhanced interrogation” program. Then he got himself elected president of the American Psychological Association (APA). Always a man with a sense of the well-timed career move, he used his new role at the APA to shift focus. At his inauguration, he announced that psychology had, for far too long, concentrated on mental illness and the negative side of the human experience. It was time, he proclaimed, to build a new “positive psychology,” which would instead be about making healthy people happier. Since then, the popularity of the professor’s work has exploded. He regularly receives invitations to give keynote addresses at some
of the world’s largest corporations. He had a personal audience with the prime minister of Great Britain. He has provided coaching to hundreds of people at a time on conference calls costing $2,000 a pop. Martin Seligman was certainly not the first person to promote the benefits of positive thinking. Before him, though, the concept tended to repel as many people as it attracted, carrying with it a faint whiff of the tent revival. Seligman changed this. He brought positive thinking into the laboratory and the boardroom. Unlike his predecessors, Seligman regularly refers to statistics and equations and uses high-flown terminology. His words serve as the equivalent of a doctor’s white coat. They seem authoritative, so we don’t question them. While Seligman’s ideas have been widely embraced, a few brave souls have stepped forward to challenge him. In particular, the journalist Barbara Ehrenreich, in her book Bright-Sided: How Positive Thinking Is Undermining America, dug into some of positive psychology’s most deeply held tenets. At one point, Ehrenreich writes about how, during an interview with Seligman, she brought up discrepancies she had uncovered in some of the mathematical formulas he claims proves the effectiveness of his concepts. Instead of presenting a logical rebuttal, the professor responded with a irritated comment about her lack of sophistication—perhaps a function of how rarely he is challenged. During a lecture on positive psychology at the University of East London, a mathematician named Nick Brown listened to an acolyte of Seligman speak with reverence about the number 2.9013. According to the presenter, if the ratio of a person’s total positive emotions to their negative emotions came out to 2.9013, the person had a flourishing life. Everyone in attendance seemed to accept this finding without question. Everything Brown knew about mathematics told him it was absurd.
“The idea that any aspect of human behavior or experience,” Brown explained, “should be universally and reproducibly constant to five significant digits would, if proven, constitute a unique moment in the history of the social sciences.” Nick Brown published his insights in an academic paper. Hardly anyone paid attention. What is it about Seligman’s ideas that make them so attractive even when they fail to hold up under scrutiny? Martin Seligman’s math may be questionable, but his marketing is sound. He understands that while many Ivy League academics, corporate executives, and other power brokers tend to resist the fluffy positive thinking concepts used by the likes of preachers and New Age gurus, they cannot resist the persuasive appeal of these same ideas when packaged in hard science and big data. It is a lesson you would do well to follow. THE SCIENCE OF HYPE In a series of experiments, psychologists Carl Hovland and Walter Weiss presented subjects with a series of arguments advocating for positions they disagreed with. In some instances, the new arguments were conveyed informally by people dressed in street clothes. In other cases, they were presented by people displaying obvious credentials. The subjects who received the contrarian opinions from the more visibly credible figures changed their minds far more often than the first group, even though none of the so-called experts presenting their arguments ever offered any real proof of their expertise. Why do otherwise intelligent people so readily trust these displays of credibility, regardless of whether that credibility is backed up in any meaningful way? We simply cannot help it. It is how our brains are wired.
Popular science writer Leonard Mlodinow explored this concept in depth in his bestselling book Subliminal: How Your Unconscious Mind Rules Your Behavior. “We don’t have the time or the mental bandwidth,” he explains, “to observe and consider each detail of every item in our environment. Instead we employ a few salient traits that we do observe to assign the object to a category rather than the object itself.” In other words, our brains don’t really care about digging into all the details that go into making someone a credible expert. What our mental circuitry does crave is shortcuts indicating the person we are thinking about following is smart and capable. How can you benefit from this effect in your own career? For those on a traditional path, it is relatively simple. Enroll in the right educational programs; take the right tests; get the right degrees. However, it becomes more challenging for any of us whose trajectory is less well defined. If your goal, project, or concept is unusual, new, or original, the credibility signals people rely on to decide whether to trust you may not even exist yet. That’s when the tools, tactics, and strategies of the hype artist become incredibly valuable. THE LONG LIFE OF SCIENTIFIC PRESENTATION There are few accolades more prestigious in higher education than a master of business administration from Harvard Business School. Its alumni have filled the C-suites and corporate boards of America for more than a century. As the first postgraduate business school, HBS is the template for every MBA program that followed. The principles on which the Harvard Business School curriculum is based come directly from the ideas of turn-of-the-twentieth
century thinker and writer Frederick Winslow Taylor—the originator of a discipline called “scientific management.” In a series of lectures delivered from the study of his mansion in Chestnut Hill, Pennsylvania (later captured in his book The Principles of Scientific Management), Taylor told his devoted listeners the story of a machine shop that had hired him to advise the shop during the early days of his career. While there, he hit upon a method of using mathematical analysis and behavioral engineering to dramatically improve the efficiency of the company’s pig iron loading operation. His findings would go on to form the basis of a revolution in industrial organization. Moreover, the idea that you could manipulate the messy province of human behavior through precise measurement and strict control was irresistible to those tasked with educating future captains of industry. Taylor explained increases in productivity with formulas such as B = (p + [a + b + d + f + distance hauled/100 × (c + e)]27/L)(1 + P)*. He presented instructions for how managers should interact with their workers in terms of unalterable principles having more in common with Newton’s laws of thermodynamics than with the gut- based decision-making that had preceded him. He kept his rules and stories exactly the same from meeting to meeting and lecture to lecture. To this day, much of what is taught about industrial production is based on what Frederick Taylor put forth. However, almost all of the broad, scientific principles he presented as ironclad facts were based on nothing more than a single, nonreproducible example. Even the quickest deep dive into Taylor’s “scientific management” would have revealed inconsistencies betraying a complete lack of true scientific method to anyone who might have cared to ask. Yet for the longest time, no one ever really did. Why? Because he unfailingly used a brand of scientific hype consisting of two equally balanced parts—data and certainty.
In the words of Matthew Stewart, who relates this story in his book The Management Myth, “Frederick Winslow Taylor told the pig-iron story so often and so well that . . . critics and sympathizers alike simply assumed it was true. But it was not.” The real world—especially when it comes to human behavior—is messy, and this is uncomfortable for many people. Formulas, laws, and unchanging principles allow people to feel they have a bulwark against this chaos, and they will pay a lot for this feeling. Frederick Taylor’s success didn’t come about because his ideas were unsubstantiated but, rather, in spite of it. If you are struggling to gain traction around a legitimate new idea, business, or cause, elements of his strategy will prove useful in your mission to stand out and build momentum. Always speak with complete certainty. Present your ideas as if they were truths on par with the theory of relativity. Use numbers. Find relevant statistics and cite them publicly whenever possible. Today, the internet allows you to access and compile real data from the widest variety of sources. Surround your claims with well- researched credibility signals, and you’ll be able to create the Frederick Taylor effect on behalf of something real. WHY ASK WHY? In many ways, the digital age equivalent to Frederick Taylor’s Chestnut Hill lectures are TED Talks (with the latter, of course, having a wider scope of distribution). It was as a result of a blockbuster TED Talk called “Start with Why” that Simon Sinek launched his career as a business guru. He subsequently published a book with the same title, which quickly became a bestseller. Then he parlayed that into a run of high-traffic YouTube videos and even higher-priced keynote speeches. With his serious air, professorial spectacles, and $10 words, Sinek comes across as the kind of guy
who spends his days conducting lab research and writing academic papers. Not so. Before he became a professional guru, Simon Sinek worked in advertising. His tenure at Ogilvy&Mather and Euro RSCG taught him well how to sell his ideas in the form of books, talks, and consulting engagements. According to Sinek, companies achieve enduring success by tapping into the human neocortex. Likewise, the reason passion is so important in business is because of the limbic system. Furthermore, our dependence on social media is all about dopamine. Is all this accurate? I would argue it doesn’t actually matter. Like Frederick Taylor, Sinek understands scientific packaging is one of the most effective sales strategies around. What makes his approach especially sophisticated is his use of a preexisting scientific vocabulary to add glitter to what might otherwise be common sense (and hence humdrum) concepts. In this regard, he comes from a proud tradition. For instance, the word “halitosis” was almost completely unknown to the general public until the early twentieth century when a business owner named Gerard Lambert started using it to sell a new product called Listerine. By giving a mundane fact of life (bad breath) a scientific-sounding label, Lambert elevated the authority and desirability of his product many times over. Sinek and Lambert have a lot in common. Repackaging kitchen table advice and popular wisdom in a gauze of neurons, dendrites, and hormones has helped the motivational speaker-slash-consultant create a movement. Follow his example. Straight talk only goes so far. Sometimes it pays to overcomplicate simple messages. Make a list of $10 words, scientific terms, and obscure niblets of terminology and find ways to use them. Your reputation and authority will soar.
Another tactic Simon Sinek uses to get people to pay big money for his ideas is to position himself as the guy in charge without being too obvious about it. He is careful to speak in an unthreatening tone while at the same time choosing words that establish him as an undisputed alpha thinker. Consider his most famous statement: “Start with why.” He isn’t making a suggestion about what you might want to try to do. He isn’t presenting a possibility for you to consider. He is telling you what you must do if you want to achieve success. “Start with why” is a command. And people follow commands . . . when they come from a “trusted expert,” that is. Find ways to do the same in your business. Take your most important concepts and create a list of 10 punchy statements, each beginning with an action verb. When you tell people exactly what they should do, they will. And usually they won’t even think about it first. Plus, the air of scientific authority in one area has a tendency to bleed into others. In 2017 a Simon Sinek video began circulating on the internet about why millennials are such disappointments in the workplace. In his telling, they were failed by their parents who “told them they were special all the time” and gave them “participation medals for coming in last.” Over the course of this monologue, Sinek proclaims that the science supporting this truth is “very clear” (of course) before going on to lay out the full scope of all the other psychological, sociological, and neurological reasons for this generation’s shortcomings. Judging from its millions of views and enthusiastic comments, a good portion of the YouTube ecosystem considers this video to be on par with the collected works of Stephen Hawking in its ability to explain how the universe works. But really, what percentage of millennials actually received participation trophies on a regular basis? Did millennials who grew up in Appalachia receive the same kind of parenting as those who grew up in Orange County? What about all the other generations
who were called shiftless by their elders (see: lazy hippies and Generation X slackers)? It is interesting how many people immediately accepted Sinek’s explanation without questioning it. This is a testament to how well he understands how to deliver a message to ensure maximum buy- in. Sinek rarely casts his ideas as mere opinions. You will hardly ever hear him give the other side of the story or cite a scientific finding that doesn’t support his argument. Not only does he proclaim ideas with utter confidence; he conveys them as immutable laws of nature. Do like Sinek. If you’re a reasonable human being, there’s a good chance you have some doubts about some of your ideas. Keep your doubts to yourself. If you want to build a dedicated following, talk about your offer as if it is the one and only answer to the problems your clients and customers face. Combined with a healthy dose of so-called science and verbal jujitsu, this tactic will ensure your business grows like crazy—even if you didn’t start with why. BEYOND SCIENCE According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, the definition of the word “arbitrage” is “the nearly simultaneous purchase and sale of securities of foreign exchange in different markets in order to profit from price discrepancies.” In other words, an equity trader might use the strategy of arbitrage by uncovering and buying an undervalued currency or commodity in their own national market and then selling it at a high price in a different national market where its perceived value is much higher. In many ways, the concepts we have been discussing in this chapter are a kind of psychological arbitrage. They convey credibility in one area by importing less understood words, terms,
and concepts from another. Science is one tool for achieving this effect. But there are others. Qingchi “C Bin” Bin and Zeyu Zheng met as freshmen at Boston University in the winter of 2016. Both of them had moved to the United States from China in early adolescence, both struggled to adapt at first, and both eventually figured out how to crack their adopted country’s social codes. They became fast friends, with a bond forged from their common background and shared interest in entrepreneurship. They spent many late nights in their dorm rooms dreaming about new businesses they could start together. During this period, the friends regularly spent time on Chinese social media platforms like Dedao, which most of their American classmates had never heard of. For a while, Bin and Zheng used the platforms to stay on top of what was happening back home and to keep in touch with old friends. Soon, however, they began to notice an interesting trend. More and more users were attempting to promote themselves—their hobbies, interests, and small businesses —in an outgoing style that was practically nonexistent in the China they had left only a few years earlier. And they were doing so poorly. Bin and Zheng soon realized that in the face of exponential economic growth, people in China were finally coming to terms with the need to engage in overt marketing and self-promotion. Because both of them had had to learn to promote themselves socially in a way that didn’t come naturally to either of them, it occurred to them they could deliver this knowledge to the Chinese market. But unlike an American who might try to teach self- promotion in China, they had an intimate understanding of what it would take to translate what they knew. They also had a unique cachet that came from straddling both worlds. The friends cofounded a digital education company called VStarOne and quickly began making real money. They spent some
of the money on themselves. They reinvested some of it into the business. Sometimes they did both at the same time. For example, Zheng bought a Corvette. Now a Corvette is certainly a nice car, but it is nowhere near as costly or prestigious as a Lamborghini or Ferrari. But it is a car that is barely known in China. So when Zheng posted photos of himself next to it on Dedao, it appeared he owned a car even more exotic—and hence more rare and prestigious—than top European models. As the pair’s fortunes and client base grew further, they realized they needed a team to help them out, but they didn’t want the overhead of permanent office space and payroll. So they built a remote team, began to work out of various luxury hotels (a credibility signifier), and posted photos of themselves operating in the “workplace of the future.” This increased their prestige even further. How do I know so much about these guys? About a year and a half ago they contacted me about getting some coverage in Forbes, where I was writing a column at the time. I liked their story, and I thought they had a good product, so I agreed to cover them. They proceeded to spread the word about the article like crazy to their Chinese audience. Because Forbes is an American publication, it holds a level of prestige even beyond what it carries here. They used it to raise their audience’s perceptions of them. Their customer base and revenue immediately experienced another spike. Arbitrage. Throughout this chapter we have discussed hype artists who have used scientific lingo to get people to accept what they offered without question. We have also examined entrepreneurs who have found credibility in uncommon places and used it to persuade people to give them a chance. In a digitally enhanced world where blatantly false claims can be uncovered in no time, pure deceit will only subvert your goals. Fortunately, even the most upright businesspeople and creators can use the underlying principles
we’ve discussed at every stage of their careers. Dig deep and find exalted words for everyday things. Look for arbitrage opportunities in areas in which you can see details that members of your potential audience cannot. And always remember that credibility is in the eye of the beholder. It is up to you to shape how you are beheld. Putting It into Practice • Instead of using jargon that other people have come up with, create your own. Use it whenever possible. Doing this will convey instant expertise. • Take your most important concepts and develop 10 punchy statements that each start with an action verb. • Use numbers. Research statistics and cite them publicly. Refer to mathematical formulas. Talk about data. Even just using the word “data” will provide much of the desired effect.